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This summer in the U.S. As the job market rebounds and the demand for labor increases, employers have no chance to rest anytime soon. Labor shortages can persist for years even after a rapid economic recovery eases the growing pains.
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Note that the working age population did something last year that has never happened in the history of this country. It is less.
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The Census Bureau estimates that the U.S. population of people ages 16 to 64 will decrease by 0.1% in 2020. This is a very small decline, but the first after decades of steady growth. This reflects a sharp decline in immigration, a large number of baby boomers retiring and declining birth rates. The size of the 16- to 64-year-old population also decreased last year as thousands died from the coronavirus.
It is not entirely clear how population patterns will evolve once an epidemic is completely eradicated. But even if the working-age population begins to grow again, it will certainly do so at an anemic pace. If that population continues to decline or temperatures rise, it will be a problem for the economy. Healthy economic growth has always depended on strong population growth, which boosts consumer spending, drives business expansion, and boosts corporate profits. Without a significant influx of new workers, growth is likely to stall.
Still, some economists envision a silver lining for individuals. A decline in the working-age population may force companies to compete more fiercely to recruit and retain employees. And that means higher wages, better opportunities and other incentives to retain and attract workers, already evident in the June jobs report released Friday. Average hourly wages rose 3.6% year over year, surpassing the pre-pandemic pace.
“Labor is going to do better than the economy as a whole,” said Manoj Pradhan, a former Morgan Stanley economist and founder of economic research firm Talking Heads Marco.
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As rapidly rising wages separate the wealthiest Americans from everyone else, low-income families struggle to pay rent, food, child care and other essential costs.
As population growth slows, economic expansion depends on companies increasing employee productivity. Increased productivity, often through investment in labor-saving technology, can lead to further wage increases. The economy generally struggles to grow at a healthy pace, while living standards rise.
The number of legal and undocumented immigrants entering the United States last year fell below 500,000 for the fourth year in a row, less than half the level in 2016, according to calculations by demographer William Frey of the Brookings Institution. The death toll rose 8% to over 3 million, largely reflecting the impact of the pandemic.
A major long-term drag on the working-age population is the exit of large numbers of baby boomers from the labor force. Frey said the number of people aged 65 and over will increase by 30% in the next 10 years.
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“We have never faced this kind of situation before,” he said. “There aren’t enough (young people) to replace those who leave.”
This year, many people retired early, which worsened the situation. About 2.6 million people who were employed before the pandemic are now retired and say they are not looking for work, according to the Dallas Fed. Despite a deep recession caused by the pandemic, soaring stock and home prices have made it easier for many older Americans to leave the labor force early.
One of them is Eli Lilly & Co. in Indianapolis. Dr. Jeff Ferguson retired at age 59 after 22 years of service.
Working from home during the pandemic has eased the transition, Ferguson said. But despite economic uncertainty, he was encouraged by strong investment returns and a strengthening local housing market.
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“You’re more likely to retire with a tailwind than you are with a headwind,” he said. “If I had felt the wind, I would have delayed it.”
The pandemic has given them a new perspective on life and retirement. Mr. Ferguson and his wife, a pediatrician, plan to travel across the country to visit relatives.
Gad Lebanon, an economist at the Conference Board, said the decline in the working-age population is particularly pronounced among Americans without college degrees. As the aging baby boomer generation retires, they will be replaced by young workers aiming for college degrees. There will be a shortage of blue-collar workers (those without a four-year degree). This trend is creating labor shortages in industries such as manufacturing, construction, retail, restaurants and hotels.
Despite population decline, Lebanon predicts that the number of college graduates will increase by about 2% per year, while the number of non-university graduates will decline. This can make it difficult for prospective college graduates to find jobs that match their education level. Companies may increase employment requirements and require degrees for positions that were not previously required.
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“The number of people wanting to work in blue-collar, manual service jobs is decreasing,” Lebanon said.
Wages for low-wage workers are already rising rapidly. Hourly wages for the lowest-paid quarter workers rose 4.2% in May, according to the Atlanta Fed. That’s more than double the share these workers received in the four years from 2010 to 2014 after the Great Recession, and more than a quarter of the wealthiest workers.
Surrounded by an aging population, Scott Seeholm, CEO of Universal Metal Products, a 285-employee metal stamping company near Cleveland, is desperate to get young people interested in manufacturing careers. Do my best. Seaholm said research shows that in 2015, working-age adults made up about 59% of the population in Lake County, Ohio. This rate fell to 57% last year, but is expected to rise to 54% by 2025.
More than half of the workers in his three factories are over 55, and less than one in five are between 20 and 34, he said. He is still an 81-year-old employee working on a punch press.
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The Seaholm company is part of a group that encourages high school students to consider factory jobs. They open their factory to high school students on the annual “Industry Day” and encourage their parents to come too.
“They want Johnny and Judy to go to college,” he said. “It’s in their heads.”
Globally, the workforce is aging in many other countries, including China, which once had an unlimited labor supply. Japan’s population has been declining for decades.
This trend will benefit American workers, Pradhan said. Since the end of the Cold War in the early 1990s, hundreds of millions of people from China, Eastern Europe and India have joined the global workforce, suppressing wages for low-skilled workers and controlling prices.
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Aging populations now have the potential to reverse this trend in many parts of the world, Pradhan and former Bank of England economist Charles Goodhart wrote last year in “The Great Demographic Reversal: An Aging Society,” in the book, “Winging Inequality.” and the return of inflation.”
Pradhan points out that Japan’s economic growth rate averages only 1% per year, and the population has been shrinking by 1% per year for 10 years. But this means a growth of 2% per capita.
The country’s population growth rate is only 0.5% per year, but if the US could achieve that level of efficiency, the economy could grow at 2.5% per year, Pradhan said.
But he and other economists worry that over time, slower population growth could mean less consumer spending and less economic vitality.
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“Activists innovate and create ideas. They invent things,” said Casey Buckle, a professor of economics at the University of Notre Dame. “When the working-age population declines, fewer of them work.”
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